Manchester City weaker so the Premier League title might be bound for Arsenal
What do Arsenal need to win the Premier League?
For the first time since the summer of 2007, I genuinely believe Arsenal can win the Premier League this season. I’m not saying we “will” win the league, just that we can. So, how do we do it?
89, 93, 86, 99 & 98 are the points total of the champions over the past five seasons. That’s an average of 93 points. A figure that has been a maximum for the past three seasons. Let’s work on the basis that 94 points will secure the Premier League. So, where do Arsenal get those points from?
Luton Town and Sheffield Utd is a “must obtain” 12 points.
Then you have the following “releation threatened” teams: Burnley, Everton, Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and Wolves. That’s 10 fixtures and 30 points available. Arsenal really need to flat track bully their way towards another 30 points. But this is football, so let’s allow for a rogue draw somewhere along the line, so 28 points. We’re now on 40 points.
Looking towards the “middling teams” who will be hoping to look upwards rather than downwards and you have West Ham, Crystal Palace, Fulham, Brentford, Aston Villa and Brighton. These 12 fixtures offer an opportunity for a further 36 points but there is definitely a step up in quality here compared to the last group of opponents listed. 6 home wins, 3 away wins and 3 away draws (let’s say Aston Villa, Brighton and one other) would give us a further 30 points. We’re now on 70 points.
Ok, so 24 points still required and six teams left to play.
We’ll need to match the 6 points we took off Sp*rs last season. 18 points still needed. Can we match the 8 points we took off Newcastle and Liverpool last season? 10 points still needed.
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Arsenal for the title? Why not?
Winners: Arsenal — They’ve kept the fundamentals and added wisely, should be ready to push on with last year’s experience.
2nd, 3rd, 4th: United, City, Liverpool — United are in a similar boat to Arsenal, and now have a goal scorer, but may not be the finished article ready for a title push. City have lost a few match winners, and so far look weaker than last season, plus their motivation could potentially be diminished. Liverpool should bounce back but they still appear dodgy at the back, but more than enough to get them in the top four.
5th, 6th, 7th, 8th: Chelsea, Newcastle, Spurs, Villa — No European football should bode Chelsea well, but Poch has a massive job turning those players into a team. Champions League football, teams knowing how they play combined with some moderate upgrades makes for a challenging season. Spurs should improve, but this guess is based on Harry staying. Villa in theory should be capable of achieving better than last year, but like Newcastle, teams will know what to expect this year. Realistically, all of these teams are interchangeable/reversible.
